Costs

Key Trends Rising prices over the short term. In July, BNEF expected the volume-weighted price of lithium-ion battery packs in 2022 to rise by approximately 2%. As of December, prices in 2022 had risen by 7% (to $151/kWh) and are forecast to hold steady in 2023.

Factors increasing price: Soaring lithium, cobalt & nickel, electrolyte prices due to supply constraints; inflation; geopolitical conflict; and lingering Covid-19 supply chain issues were the main drivers of the price increase.

Falling prices over the long term. Stabilized and/or lower commodity prices, new cell chemistries (e.g. chemistries that use more nickel and less cobalt, and higher adoption of LFP), and economies of scale should start to bring average battery pack prices back down in 2024. Prices vary by application, region and chemistry. Impact on EV price parity. Though some automakers have locked in long-term supply contracts, BNEF now expects battery pack prices will remain above $100/kWh until 2026. This is two years later than originally expected. While some premium EVs are already at upfront price parity with their gasoline counterparts, batteries around the $100/kWh price point will be needed for middle-market EV adoption to take off.

Application: Passenger BEVs ($138/kWh) had lower prices than stationary storage ($169/kWh) and passenger PHEVs ($345/kWh) Region: Prices were lowest in China ($127/kWh), followed by the U.S. ($157/kWh) and Europe ($169/kWh). Chemistry: LFP cells were 20% cheaper than NMC cells.

Industry: Costs Source: BNEF, P3 Group. (*) Values are averages across passenger EVs, commercial EVs, e-buses and stationary storage. Includes cell and pack.

Volta Foundation

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