Supply Chain: Upstream and Midstream

LME Nickel Prices Have Halved Since 2023 From January 2023 to November 2025, the LME nickel cash price has fallen by 52%, with the monthly average price declining from US$28,240/t to US$14,689/t. The sharp price correction has been primarily driven by a severe oversupply of primary nickel products - including Class I nickel, Class II products (nickel pig iron and ferronickel), and nickel sulphate - mainly originating from China and Indonesia. At the same time, nickel demand growth from the battery sector has been weaker than expected, as the rapid adoption of lithium iron phosphate LFP) batteries has displaced nickel-based chemistries in mass EV market, mainly in China. Since 2022, the global nickel market has been trapped in a state of structural oversupply. China and Indonesia continue to dominate global nickel production, together supplying approximately 2.91Mt Ni in 2025, equivalent to 77% of total global output. Capacity expansions are ongoing in nickel sulphate and nickel cathode production, particularly in Indonesia.

Source: Project Blue, LME

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