The Next 12 Months

PREDICTIONS The Next 12 Months

2026 Predictions 1.

Global EV demand will keep rising as affordability improves and OEM lineups broaden, including further global adoption of Made-in-China EVs even as incentives normalize in a few markets. Passenger EV sales to exceed 24M in 2026 10% vs 2025.

BESS demand hyper-growth will continue, driven by grid congestion, renewable integration, and AI data center load growth. Project pipelines deepen across the U.S., Australia, and Europe. Global deployments to reach 120GW / 360GWh in 2026 30% vs 2025.

Battery prices will decrease as the economy of scale, chemistry mix, and oversupply dynamics outweigh policy headwinds in the US and China. Average battery pack prices to dip below $100/kWh in 2026.

LFP batteries will further consolidate their position as the dominant chemistry for mass-market EVs and BESS 4th gen LFP in China), driven by cost, safety, and supply chain scale. LFP to represent 55% of global Li-ion demand.

Na-ion advances from “nextˮ to “shippingˮ for specific niches, while staying a small slice of overall demand. Na-ion is unlikely to displace significant Li-ion share near-term, even as commercial deliveries begin. 5 new Na-ion products will become commercially available in 2026.

The funding gap deepens - fewer mega‐rounds and more distressed M&A as margin pressure, regulatory uncertainty, and higher cost of capital push investors from “scale at any costˮ to “prove unit economics + contracted demand.ˮ At least 5 battery startups will pivot to monetizing patents, process know‐how, software, or sell to strategics rather than raising their next big round.

Battery swapping becomes “realˮ in China - but remains niche ex-China as China achieves the critical ingredients for mass adoption: standardization, dense urban fleets, aligned OEM ecosystems, and highway‐corridor heavy‐duty use cases. China will surpass 3,000 battery swap stations while ex-China fewer than 200 stations will be deployed in 2026.

Global policy scrutiny and China export controls will not stop international deals, but rather will transform the nature of partnerships (tech licensing, contract manufacturing, and non‐equity collaboration). 60% of newly announced cross-border battery manufacturing/technology partnerships involving OCED & Chinese firms will be non-equity, rather than equity JVs or acquisitions.

Batteries become an explicit national security and “energy dominanceˮ priority as US and European policymakers connect storage to grid resilience, AI tech dominance, defense electrification, and supply chain security. Expect a shift from “cleantech supportˮ framing toward considered industrial strategy. At least 2 major publications outlining national battery strategies with national security language.

Extracted from the PDF; charts and images may read imperfectly.